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The CoronaSphere Lounge Episode 4: The Two Timers

There’s the public health timer: the longer we keep social quarantine, the more lives we save. And there’s the economy timer: the longer that runs, the more damage we do. Is there a way to mesh them?

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6 replies on “The CoronaSphere Lounge Episode 4: The Two Timers”

The best thing about this was that it prompted me to go back and reread Tribes. Damn, Bill! I would say this is the best thing you’ve ever written, but with little effort, I can think of several others as good. Thank you, and don’t ever stop, sheepdog.

The best (safest) way to create a significant number of immune patients in the population is to vaccinate a large percentage of the population. The principle of “herd immunity” dictates that as larger numbers of a given population become immune, the probability of the chain of transmission being broken increases. Best hope is prompt development and deployment of an safe, effective vaccine. Even non-vaccinates gain a measure of protection from the high percentage of immunized individuals surrounding them. Fine thoughts and musings, as always Bill

In the absence of a vaccine, the Brits were considering a similar approach: Let the young catch the disease and develop an immunity, and keep the old and vulnerable away from them until they had done so. But they ran the numbers and decided they didn’t like the expected death toll, even among the populations where it was expected to be low.

Bill, thanks for doing these–it’s a great way to feel a little less isolated while also getting a summary on where we are at the end of each day. Makes me very glad to be member producer of BW.com!

I agree with most of what you say here about doing both–restarting the economy using social distancing and precautionary measures–and for what it’s worth, the President’s press conference yesterday evening sounded as if he is thinking along the same lines–but there is one bit of it that makes me say No.

And that is this idea that some governmental agent will issue me a certificate of some kind that allows me to be out in society. Uh, no. My first reaction was, “black market cheaters.” My second thought was “yellow Juden armbands/patches.” I would never willingly submit to such a thing. You can allege, “but it’s science,” but I am certain that there is no putting that back in the box that it came in, and it will become monstrous.

But I think that we could more or less make the general idea work, at least in non-population-dense areas, on the honor system. Yes, people would cheat, college kids would still go to the beach for spring break, but social pressure and new societal norms are much, much better than government-issued certificates of cleanliness.

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