Vladimir Putin looks sick. His Ukraine adventure flounders. His oligarchs are making other plans. No matter what happens with the war, what happens in a post-Putin Russia? Does it slip back into Soviet-style central control? Will another kleptocrat arise drawing money and power to himself under a patina of democracy? Or does Russia finally achieve the promise of the Soviet collapse three decades ago?
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14 replies on “Post-Putin Russia: Does it Retreat to Soviet Control, Stay Kleptocracy, or Advance to Liberty?”
Re cracka is this meant to have its own page? Its on the Putin one.
The British already did this with Noughts + Crosses. An alternate world where black invaders conquered Britain & most of Europe in 1,320 AD and racism is revered. The story is about a couple, white man and black woman in love. Its entering season 2 on BBC.
Most white supremacist’s believe they are an oppressed minority in their own land so both Cracka and Noughts and Crosses will pay into that fear. Even the pre-civil war south saw themselves as trapped in a land they could not farm without being out numbered by black and Indian populations that were a threat to them. Their writings indicated an expectation that emancipation would lead to them being wiped out or driven out. For some family’s that was true, they fled west or to Canada after the civil war.
Think of how many of those brilliant minds Stalin and Hilter killed, talk about a brain drain.
Any country that comes up with composers like Tchaikovsky, Rimsky-Korsakoff, Borodin, and Mussorgsky, along with authors such as Solzhenitzyn, Chekhov, and Dostoyevsky is culturally superior. Period. The excellence that they exhibit in ballet and the vocal arts is superior. Period.
But they are astoundingly and incomprehensibly woeful at self-governance.
I’d trade what the USA has with no other country. Overarchingly due to our Constitution. I’m soooooo happy that the Russian’s amazing culture can be experienced in the comfort of my America.
Amen.
I remember an anecdotal story from shortly after the Soviet Union collapsed, where an American was riding in a taxi and asked the driver how he felt about Russia finally adopting capitalism. The driver replied, “I’m sure it will work just fine as soon as a strong leader takes charge and implements the necessary changes.” (Wording may vary.)
This is a semi-tangent, but since we’re talking about Russia…Does anyone here remember when PJTV used to make an annual video “The Duranty Awards”? Good times!
Russia may change superficially but I do not hold any hope for a profound course correction towards the liberty and prosperity of Western Democracies.
It’s important to remember that the Russian people have never been free of their own tyrants. This isn’t wholly the fault of those tyrants, evil or not though they may be. The West has shown the way to self-governance and the elimination of tyrannies, the Russian people have never picked up that gauntlet and used it.
There were good and bad Tsars, some worse and some better. They were still tyrant kings more concerned with their own opulence and power than with the needs of their subjects.
Russia was still a serfdom at the dawn of the 20th Century. The disparity of quality of life between the wealthy few and the poor many, along with the complete lack of prospect or opportunity to alter one’s station in life, provided fertile ground for a revolution of The People. The Russians were every bit as downtrodden and oppressed by their extravagant Tsars as the American Colonists were done ill by Britain’s King George III. The situations were societally similar if not economically and militarily identical.
Sadly, the Russian revolution not only trailed the implementation of Western Democracy by more than a century, the Russian People choose or were cuckolded by the wrong ideology. When Russians had a choice to move towards Western self rule and liberty they chose the wrong path.
When finally that evil form of government they had chosen collapsed as it eventually must, the Russians found themselves with a fresh opportunity and … Chose the wrong path again.
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice shame on me.
All tyrants fear The People because they know that if their control slips the sheer numbers are wholly against them. No matter how many secret police and armed thugs you have propping you up, if The People decide to get rid of you, you’re gone. America led the way in proving that and showed the world how to do it.
The Russian People are complicit and culpable in their own misery. It’s almost as if they like to be miserable. It’s hard to argue otherwise because they do so much, or allow so much to be done to them, that they remain a subjugated population no matter who holds the reins of political power.
While my view of Russians as a whole is quite jaundiced I’m well aware that not all Russians fit a stereotype any more than all Americans do. I’ve been around enough to know better. Many foreigners think America is a land of Cowboys and Gangsters with constant gunfights and streets drenched in innocent blood. That is no more true than any stereotype we might have of Russia or elsewhere.
There are good Russian people and they do what they can to thwart their own tyrants but those efforts are too small and too few. They are not a groundswell of The People, they are the few who recognize and realize the terrible things being done to them. Many of those people are left with no choice but to abandon Russia and flee if they want a better life.
Natasha Whittle is an example of such a person. I wholeheartedly welcome such people to The West. Their actions prove them to be the exception to the malady of misery that Russians seem to embrace.
There’s always hope but in the case of Russia that hope is scant. The problem in Russia isn’t the Tsars, the Communist Party or Putin. The problem with Russia is the Russians themselves. Until they decide they’re not going to take it anymore, they’re going to keep doing what they’ve been doing. They have given no historical reason to believe otherwise. I hope I’m wrong but strongly doubt that I am.
I have no argument with your comments about the Russians, but believe we need to keep some perspective on the American colonial environment.
“It’s important to remember that the Russian people have never been free of their own tyrants. …. The Russians were every bit as downtrodden and oppressed by their extravagant Tsars as the American Colonists were done ill by Britain’s King George III. The situations were societally similar if not economically and militarily identical.”
While the colonists were under some depredations from the English king and parliament, and under nominal control via colonial governors, the facts on the ground meant that in reality the colonists were often better off materially and politically than their counterparts in England. These factors include the 2 to 3 week time lag across the Atlantic to receive any “guidance” from England; many well off colonists sent their older teenagers and young men to study law and/or science at the few colleges available – or to Europe – so they were very familiar with English common law; almost everyone was literate enough to read the Bible (I may be over-reaching on that just a little?); and (most importantly) they had several/many decades of experience with self rule of some form, derived from various charters, compacts, constitutions, and contracts among themselves and with England. They knew what it was like to be (nearly?) free men and thus were very sensitive to attempts to limit that freedom. Jefferson called this attitude the American Mind. They were still loyal subjects of the crown and not independent citizens — until they decided otherwise, gradually from 1760 (?) to 1776..
In contract, almost none of this applied to the Russians, the Iraqis, the Afghanis, or any other nation that did not have at least some exposure to British (or perhaps Dutch?) colonial rule. Most of Europe was more tyrannical than England at that time. Now we see India pretty well oriented to republican democracy (with issues) while Pakistan is rather wayward in actual practice. A rather mixed bag elsewhere around the globe.
This got longer than I intended. Bottom line is the American colonists had much less reason to revolt compared to the French of 1789 or the Russians of 1917. But we can all see be glad that they did 🙂 .
Yes, well I did say that the situations had social similarities though were not economically and militarily similar. Which effectively covers your reply for all intents and purposes. We can quibble about that until the veritable cows come home but that is tangential and wasn’t really my point anyway.
My point was that Russia isn’t likely to free itself from itself and that the basic fault for that lies with the Russians themselves. If you want to discuss that point I’m happy to oblige. My point was that the Russian people are not unique in being oppressed and … If you want to pick apart a purposefully vague, intentionally loose generality and avoid my point that’s a different matter —
There are always nits to be picked. People often do that to show everyone how smart they are or how much they know but that is not engaging in conversation, it’s vain boasting. I could do that to you too but I choose not to. There are quibbles I could come up with to what you said and then we’d be completely off point. That is the bad habit many have of talking at someone instead of talking with someone and I find it exceedingly irritating. I’m sure you’ve experienced speaking to someone who is trying to think of the next smart thing they’re going to say rather than engaging in real dialog and genuinely exchanging ideas. That may or may not have been your intent but now that I’ve pointed it out I’d appreciate a real conversation rather than broadsides fired by brain cannons trying to prove the bore and charge of a booming intellect.
Now that I’ve made that clear I will point out that if you reply to the above paragraph and not to the points I’m making then it’s obvious your intention is to boast and not converse. We can drop this and I’d love to do that and have a genuine conversation. I won’t be brow beaten with tangential irrelevances. If you cannot find and focus on the points being made I’m probably not going to be interested in talking to you so … Your call. Hugo Gomez does this all the time, it’s like the guy can’t see or respond to a point if it walked up and bit him in the ass. So I just stop talking to him and I’m sure he thinks he’s “won” because he’s too stupid to know what’s happening. If you think talking to me is a competition to be “won” or “lost” then you might as well not talk to me at all.
I’m spoiled. I have some very intelligent friends who are very good at genuine conversation and my bar is set pretty high. I think you’re smart enough and knowledgeable enough to be one of those people but we’ll see in very short order.
The fact is that the United States of America showed the world, for the first time in modern history; in the age of emerging industrial technology, proto-modern weaponry and global political reach, that a real “superpower” could be defeated by determined men with intelligence, character and courage. Men who humbled themselves before their Creator and assayed to attain what is truly right and good. The details will ALWAYS vary in degree and specifics from situation to situation and scenario to scenario but while the devil may be in the details, the basic concept and facts are sound and unequivocal.
If the Russians want to throw off tyranny and adopt liberty they are capable of doing so. Everyone is capable of doing so as a people of political identity. If they do not then they are culpable. If they keep this up, they may end up as radioactive slag to boot so … It would be a good move for them to stop being the world’s bad guys and come on in from the cold.
I don’t see them doing that and I do not allow there are any excuses for that failure as valid. Other people at least as oppressed, though that oppression may not have been identical in character, form or fact, have accomplished that very thing. The Russians have no excuse not to do so but I doubt they will. It goes against their national character and I don’t think the Russians are strong enough, good enough, honest enough, or virtuous enough to adopt a new national character.
I do not think highly of Russians as human beings and my evidence for that opinion is historical fact. I would love for them to surprise me, I’d happily admit I was wrong if they can turn themselves into a modern Western Democracy and asset to humanity. I’m not holding my breath that they will do that.
I hold heartedly agree, and one must know/remember our present “want to be tyrannical government” is hard at work at this moment trying to take the very most valuable tool to prevent tyrannical governments away from the U.S.citizens.
Yes, but that’s always the case. The default is to tend towards tyranny, always. It is like the cold of winter that must be kept out. It’s always out there, it’s always trying to get in, to the degree that you do not plug the holes it tries to enter through is the degree you will be colder, or burn more heating fuel, than otherwise. Or like a submerged submarine hull, the sea is outside the hull and always trying to get in. Etc.
This is why the phrase “Eternal vigilance is the price of liberty” is so often repeated. In fact, it is so true and so often repeated that no one is really sure who said it first (so as to attribute a citation).
America has been so secure, so free and so prosperous for so long that there are many Americans who forget that this is an exception and not the rule. It is a leg on the chair of American Exceptionalism and to knock that leg out is to make the chair unstable. Which is why Obama and others wanted so badly to dispel the idea of American Exceptionalism.
Sanctions are tied to behavior and policies not people. Sanctions end when the behavior or policy ends, not when the person ends. That wasn’t a real good question but does demonstrate that Bill is an actual human being.
Gog will not go away that easily.
True, but I don’t think that was the point. Gog is Gog no matter what superficial character it displays. There’s no reason to think that Gog will “go away” if it becomes more European-like. Europe is doing a dandy job of slotting itself into the prophetic landscape and no doubt Russia’s role will follow the same sort of trajectory.
I learned a long time ago not to trust Russia or Russians. I learned that lesson directly from Russians. I doubt there’s anything that Russia can do during what remains of my lifetime that would alter my opinion in that regard.
That said, it would be nice if Russia stopped being the buddy of the bad guys and the threat to the larger world that it has been for the last century between now and when Gog fulfills its eschatological role. Nice for the Russian people who have been victims of their own leadership for their entire history and nice for the rest of us too.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst, and pray for the Peace of Jerusalem.