This is a very good article by a molecular biologist and mathematician saying we need to be more honest in pandemic modeling by extending how long they show the effects for. By hacking one of the models showing the difference between 2 weeks and 2 months of social isolation to extend the timeline much farther out they actually showed the 2 months of isolation actually led to 50% more deaths and infections. We need to have honest discussions about if these measures are really whats best and if the cure is worse then the disease but unfortunately that is not happening and its going to ruin everything if this conversation doesn’t start happening.
https://medium.com/@wpegden/a-call-to-honesty-in-pandemic-modeling-5c156686a64b
2 replies on “A call to honesty in pandemic modeling”
A very interesting case. I’m honestly still not sure myself whether or not social isolation is a good strategy long-term. However, if we can use these two months to develop a vaccine and administer it to the large majority of the population, or produce and distribute enough of those hydroxychloroquine cocktails to nullify the danger of the virus to those who do get it, then the quarantine is a great strategy. I don’t have enough medical expertise or awareness of the situation to judge one way or the other.
I think a vaccine, in the near term at least, is a long shot. Ramping up production of Hydroxychloroquine looks more promising.