This time in India, where the incumbent party not only won, but won a crushing landslide. Btw, I don’t know if the BJP or INC are good or bad for running India. I’m just pointing out what is a very strong global trend of election polling not measuring up to results.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/india-election-results-modi-remains-favored-to-win-as-counting-starts/2019/05/22/830b9f60-7cb4-11e9-b1f3-b233fe5811ef_story.html
One reply on “Election polls wrong again”
Patrick India is a bit complex. BJP is centre right politically but militantly Hindu which means its has been known to turn a blind eye to Hindu persecution of Christians, including murders. However it has come under pressure to curb the fanatics and that has worked. A scandal in 2001 and riot/ war in one state 2002 and major defeat in 2004 forced moderation. Its now much more a market oriented party.
The Congress party is more secular with a centre left base. Moderate socialism.
India has many hard communists that come a far third in most cases but run a few of the poorer states and districts.
The fact that it was close is based on several factors:
There is a general global trend to the right with free market advocates seeking the party that delivers. At the moment that’s the BJP’s rising moderates. The media being on the left can’t see this.
The BJP while it is fanatical it has few corruption scandals and acts fast against corrupt actors. Congress in the past has had corruption scandals that festered for months.
Congress is dynastic. The party leader this time was Rahul Gandi with his mother Sonia Gandhi a parliamentary leader. This irks some because the country shook off British monarchy only to turn the Nehru-Gandi family into a leftwing quasi monarchy.
Congress being left of centre can’t curb its hard left which is too close to the communists and too fanatical about climate change.
The BJP responds to muslim attacks with a force. Congress has a reputation for trying to negotiate when its never going to work.
Some Congress people are associated with the Clinton’s; the BJP has been smart to stay out of the US battle.
Modi’s victory is a victory for Hindu nationalism but its the moderates that rose in the party.
There are strong assurances from Modi to Christians.
Still some christian groups worry about the churches safety with the party.
https://www.opendoorsusa.org/christian-persecution/stories/why-indian-leader-modis-big-win-is-an-absolute-tragedy-for-christians/
Other organisations like Barnabas Fund barely mention India because its far worse in a dozen other countries. The communists in a few Indian states and districts are a greater threat.
Wikipedia is fairly comprehensive.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bharatiya_Janata_Party
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_National_Congress