I had the opportunity a year and a half ago to spend the day with Herb Meyer, former special assistant to DCI (Director Central Intelligence) Bill Casey. He obviously served in the Reagan administration. Herb told me a fascinating story about an analytical effort they conducted to answer the question: Was the Soviet economy actually weak and not strong like everyone in official Washington thought?
To answer it they gathered a small group of misfits and renegade analysts and started with the hypothesis, “Assume the Soviet economy is actually weak, what would we see?” They brainstormed and created a list of all the various details that one would see in a huge country indicating that it was rocketing toward collapsing. Everything from trains not on schedule to food shortages to lines at a grocery store.
They took that list and sent it to our liaison partners, (intel allies) and told them to look for the items on the list and if found, use a special code to send them to the directors office. In short order they were flooded with anecdotes and examples from all over detailing many items on the list. In many cases, there were items on the list in files at CIA headquarters sitting in the corner. Herb asked folks, “Why didn’t anyone mention these before?”, he asked, “Because nobody asked” was the response.
The list did not include things like numbers of Soviet ICBM’s or locations of tank columns, or the new design for a Soviet submarine. Those were the things everyone else was paying attention to.
They confirmed their theory, the Soviet economy was weak, and passed on the proof up the chain of command.
Seems to me that is a process we could employ now with the virus, among other items. Start with a hypothesis, as some questions, use imagination to come up with details and go see if they are there. You need to be bold and perhaps ask uncomfortable questions, but you need to be able to prove the hypothesis.
What are some questions/hypotheses?
Mine: The CCP virus escaped from a lab and got here earlier than we expected. If so, what would we find?
8 replies on “How to find out What Happened? (My first post)”
Energy use in a 24-hr period and over time, as a way to estimate (changes in) number of people working at a site. (From satellite imagery.) Food delivery (changes in). Other resources: trash pickup / number of containers; water coming in, waste water going out. Vehicles in parking lots.
Here is an interesting one based on this story. I guess this would relate to the question regarding release of the virus from the lab. Look at the changes in scientific publications from the folks who worked at the labs in question. Have they suddenly stopped?
It’s hard to come up with lower level questions! I keep thinking of higher lever, federal vs. state, cross agency questions!
Preparation questions: Who’s responsible for what (state, local, federal agencies)? Single points of failure (only CDC can produce and test kits; only FDA can approve drugs)? Is equipment current and accessible? How verified? Are items actually in stock? Ditto.
Supply chain questions: …
I think zeroing in on supply chain questions are very fertile. So maybe, what supply chain oddities/variations could you see to answer my questions or any others. For example, the Chinese were raiding Australia to find more medical supplies.
Question #1, Lab release things to look for: What are the logistics to support a high end bio lab? What supplies do they need? Has that changed in the last few months?
Question #2, Earlier release things to look for: Changes in mass transit in the Wuhan area, changes in traffic patterns around the affected areas, around the lab, around the food market. Changes in the food supplies to the market.
These exercises are very difficult especially when your adversary is trying to hide it. And it is difficult when there is so much news narrative being pushed.
After more consideration, I think I may have asked two questions in one. 1): Did the virus escape from a lab, What would we see? 2) Was the virus in the US earlier than predicted, What would we see?
Question 1: We might see the CCP reacting as if something of an unknown but probably highly dangerous level had escaped, like welding building doors shut, forcibly removing people from their homes, cancelling flights from that city to other regions of their own country. Hmmm.
Question 2: We might see a flu season both worse and earlier than usual. Maybe a spike in flu-related deaths at nursing homes, or among people with two or more co-morbidities. Has anyone looked back and counted yet?
Good examples, there is evidence that they are cremating many bodies, that really points to the extent though. Perhaps there are details there that would relate to how early the spike occurred. I think travel details could be interesting, i.e. changes in flight schedules etc.