I had the opportunity a year and a half ago to spend the day with Herb Meyer, former special assistant to DCI (Director Central Intelligence) Bill Casey. He obviously served in the Reagan administration. Herb told me a fascinating story about an analytical effort they conducted to answer the question: Was the Soviet economy actually weak and not strong like everyone in official Washington thought?
To answer it they gathered a small group of misfits and renegade analysts and started with the hypothesis, “Assume the Soviet economy is actually weak, what would we see?” They brainstormed and created a list of all the various details that one would see in a huge country indicating that it was rocketing toward collapsing. Everything from trains not on schedule to food shortages to lines at a grocery store.
They took that list and sent it to our liaison partners, (intel allies) and told them to look for the items on the list and if found, use a special code to send them to the directors office. In short order they were flooded with anecdotes and examples from all over detailing many items on the list. In many cases, there were items on the list in files at CIA headquarters sitting in the corner. Herb asked folks, “Why didn’t anyone mention these before?”, he asked, “Because nobody asked” was the response.
The list did not include things like numbers of Soviet ICBM’s or locations of tank columns, or the new design for a Soviet submarine. Those were the things everyone else was paying attention to.
They confirmed their theory, the Soviet economy was weak, and passed on the proof up the chain of command.
Seems to me that is a process we could employ now with the virus, among other items. Start with a hypothesis, as some questions, use imagination to come up with details and go see if they are there. You need to be bold and perhaps ask uncomfortable questions, but you need to be able to prove the hypothesis.
What are some questions/hypotheses?
Mine: The CCP virus escaped from a lab and got here earlier than we expected. If so, what would we find?