Read the report below carefully. As Pompeo said the North Koreans have a choice. Its not Kim’s choice. Of course after 50 years of militant socialism it has to be coached in militant language. Expect trade with the south coached as bypassing the sanctions.
Cross DMZ Trade is not new or sanctioned. It will be a state change in terms of volume.
We have yet to see any sign that Kim’s threat is even a threat. The wording is very ambiguous and the MSM and Fox are using the same translator.
The foreign minister has been sabre rattling but he’s responding to hawks in the North Korean parliament. I suspect it isn’t a real parliament yet but ministers need to at least pretend it is. The more real it gets the harder the game.
Kim’s been holding meetings with significant rank and file people; military, industry, agriculture, unions (workers party bosses). This is what I would expect if reunification is going forward.
North Korea needs to do four things to make it work.
1. Sound out people using very high up people, Kim face to face so reformers have no doubt its real not a trap. They must do it so they can work out who they can trust and who may go hard line commie and disrupt the process. Or attack South Koreans at the first chance. Then they must side line the hard liners somewhere; they can’t just kill them to achieve liberty and freedom. They must find & promote the pro-reunification (pro-freedom people). That takes time.
2. They must find something North Koreans can trade with their South Korean brothers and sisters so they do not go into reunification as the beggar party. This is one of the lessons of German reunification. With slave labour out that means cheap sub-assembly manufacturing and agriculture with genuine market receptiveness and genuine unionism. Some unionists (workers party rep) are about to become the boss. Tourism and forestry will not cut it. NK coal is not cost effective without hugely expensive mining technology up grades which will take a decade.
3. North Korean’s wants the trade embargoes lifted. They must say this at all times. However this may empower Kim Jong Un’s rivals who have all the contacts; China, Russia, Iran. Kim must find and empower people with contacts in South Korea. There is an exemption in the trade embargoes for cross border trade with the south. That’s why Cross border trade started in November 2018, hence the picture. That was testing now the real challenge starts. The embargoes drive reunification. Trump is playing along. So is Bolton I suspect.
4. Kim Jong Un and his government needs to appear strong and not subservient to Trump, South Korea or the UN. It all falls apart if weakness is shown. Being belligerent at Japan is a Korean tradition in both the North and South. Japan earned it in the 1930’s & 40’s; it will be several generations before that will change. They also need to be strong verses China and Russia. Hence the mix of missiles tested. All usable in a local land war and coastal defence not global.
War is easy. Peace is hard. Liberty without war has only happened two or three times in western history. Lets hope this is a new years gift for the history books.
Here is the old 2018 report on the first trade train.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-46395408