There are signs that Russia may be backing out of the fight with Ukraine.
https://liveuamap.com/
This map shows how strung out the Russians are because they are trapped on the roads by mud, sub standard Chinese made tires and poor maintenance. They could be cut off and surrounded at a dozen points.
We have also seen the FSB head and his aids arrested and scapegoated.
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattvespa/2022/03/14/putin-places-spy-chiefs-under-house-arrest-over-ukrainian-fiasco-n2604484
The Russian tone at the diplomatic end has moderated. According to both the Ukrainian negotiators and Israeli moderators the Russians have stopped making extreme demands and are listening now. There are contradictory reports they made no progress or agreed to allowing refugee movements.
https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/eddie-mair/putins-negotiators-becoming-softer-in-peace-talks-zelenskyy-advisor-reveals/
We see a general Russian order to regroup sent uncoded. This is only done if there is a diplomatic agreement to regroup and withdraw. Otherwise it’s normally sent coded. The Russian codes may be totally compromised; that would explain a lot. But such general regroup order to everyone at once in clear is very rare. On the live map above and in news.
The Russians are allowing large refugee movement today. Convoys of Ukrainian refugees out of Mariupol and north of Kyiv.
Weapons are flooding in from around the world. As are much bigger drones I suspect.
Putin asked China for help, equipment and probably troops (few Russians can read the instructions on Chinese weapon systems). There are Russian reports China said yes and other signs that China may have said no.
NATO has armies from Norway to Romania; Georgia, Japan and Alaska have had ‘maneuvers’. Putin can’t redeploy any more troops and assets from any other border.
Putin, or his generals may be looking for a way out.
This is a three way fight. Autocratic socialists verses Patriot civic nationalist verses Green Globalist Fabian socialists.
I have a chart on this idea. 
I think the FSB assumed that Zelenskyy would run and Ukraine was weak based on old work done when Poroshenko was in power and when he or Tymoshenko who were expected to win the 2019 election. Zelenskyy appears to have built good defenses. He supported Trump in both impeachment cases in congress. I suspect Trump reciprocated with good intel and Russian codes.
Poroshenko and Tymoshenko are globalists. So is some of the people that funded Zelenskyy’s TV shows. So you can see how the FSB analysis could be wrong. They expected another leftist kleptocrat that would run with his money at the first shot. However Zelenskyy stood and had prepared well. I believe he used decoys to save his air force and air defense. He had good hidden ammo dumps with insulated underground bunkers every where. A Russian twitter user bragged about one and showed it off.
Putin is blaming the intelligence chiefs and the generals. However Putin has no experienced officers to replace them with. Either we are seeing a last desperate push or a stand down.
The photo is Alexander Rodnyansky one of Zelenskyy’s TV people turned negotiator.
5 replies on “Signs the war may end”
They are also hampered by long ago Cold War design decisions when analyzing wheeled vehicles and tracked as to what max. Allowable ground pressure should be designed for.
They had worked it all out in WW2 but in the 1960’s they seem to have decided they would never fight a war in the Russian/ Ukrainian mud again. Europe is dry, rocky and you need a different kind of traction. The tires are made in China with sub standard materials. Some Russian media has already started scapegoating the Chinese. The tires degrade if parked for 6 months. They are vulnerable to sniper fire and fragmentation bombs. The Ukrainians have a 3 kg frag bomb it can drop from a light stealth drone that frags all the tires in a parked convoy 3 vehicles long.
It gets worse for the Russians the first few hundred switchblade drones have crossed the polish border. 40 mile range. 40 minute loiter time with camera guidance. Top attack anti tank.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AeroVironment_Switchblade
As the army of volunteers come into the country this weekend, they free up Ukraine troops west of Kyiv and north of Odessa to take all the best weapons and head for the forces trying to hit Kyiv from the north.
The Russians are apparently shipping boat loads of trucks from Vladivostok to the Black Sea, using rusty landing craft. That is an 18 day trip at 20 knots. What are they thinking? This assumes they can get though Suez. The canal Fees are in US dollars.
Its half a day later and we see some artillery and small attacks. In the far east there are battle near the border Luhansk but these are over terrain that would be [was] the oblast border before the war. A Russian push near Kharkov has been blocked. Again this looks like the two sides are trying for a favorable location for a new border. Russia still only controls two Ukrainian cities Kherson and Melitopol. Both are choke points. They are suffering drone attacks at Kherson.
A large group of Ukrainian refugees (2000+) have been detained in one city on the way to safety but they may have taken the wrong road. Its safe enough for 3 European prime ministers to visit Kyiv and meet Zelenskyy. All good signs.
Interesting take.