The CoronaSphere Lounge Episode 19: My Radical, Unpopular Coronavirus Crisis Theory. No doubt I will never hear the end of this, but I’m going with it anyway.
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The CoronaSphere Lounge Episode 19: My Radical, Unpopular Coronavirus Crisis Theory

17 replies on “The CoronaSphere Lounge Episode 19: My Radical, Unpopular Coronavirus Crisis Theory”
do you send notifications to my phone whenever you post something new? ( well only during daylight hours please.) if you do,I don’t think i am getting them.
It may be unpopular and radical, Bill, but it was just what I needed to hear. I have been yo-yo-ing between real concerns — concern over a virus that was going to kill a lot of us, and concern over the media taking us down another Hysteria Road. I want to think you are right.
I think this is a reasonable analysis overall, and if anything we just ought to weigh the many “unseen” costs of quarantine alongside it. I’m glad to see evidence that the sacrifices have at least had a measurable payoff, and am not in the least surprised to find this original approach to gaining insight come from you, Bill. Thank you for helping cast a needed light into the darkness and confusion via The Coronasphere Lounge series, Bill — and Happy Birthday!
I live in Ohio. Governor DeWine (Republican) shut down schools an restaurants down before anyone, and second after California to issue a stay at home order. Have a local church that won’t do distancing. DeWine did not shut it down or threaten it. He merely said it was not a Christian thing to do. And Bill, in this, you should be scared. You are thinking almost the same as me. Be afraid, be very afraid.,😉
I like to point out other heroes: farmers and ranchers. Not to dismiss anyone else, but without them, the trucks and stored would be empty of food.
Bill, I didn’t make it past the 45 minute mark in this vid, so maybe you addressed these issues. (I’ll try to get back to it, but there’s only so much time in day and thankfully I’ve been working from home for some time now).
Yes, lock down and social distancing has significantly decreased both the rate of infection and subsequent deaths. However, I’ve not heard anyone say that this is something that is going to eradicate the virus from the planet. So, once lock down is lifted, we go back out, and the infection rate and deaths begin rising again, threatening to overwhelm the system again, in a vicious cycle.
So, do we stay locked down for 12-18-24-?? months until a vaccine is developed, tested and approved? Vaccines, as I understand it, aren’t foolproof once developed. There are many among us that are opposed to vaccines, particularly government mandated ones, and maybe with good reason. If they refuse, are they then socially ostracized pariahs? Do you trust the government to develop a good vaccine without dangerous side effects? Do you trust them to not embed a nanochip in it with which to keep track of and control the populace? Ya, that sounds a bit conspiratorially far fetched, but then again, tell me when and where you gained this new found trust in government, given its miserable history in this regard throughout the millennia.
Unless this is “12 Monkeys” playing out before our eyes, then we need to develop our “herd immunity” to it, and the only way to do so is exposure. I’m in the 65+ “high risk” group and I fear for the lives of my children and grandchildren far more than I fear for my own.
And then, you “got to the cost” eventually, but you totally glossed over it. If the lockdown continues to 12-18-24 months, many many businesses will close, never to reopen, many many people will lose their jobs and everything they own, and much human misery, suffering, and death with result.
Oh, but the ever benevolent government has passed a bill to hand out cash to businesses to mitigate these problems. Please. This country is bankrupt and has been for some time. Our grandchildren will live very brutal and impoverished lives (“lives of hellish desperation”) because the inter-generational robbery we’ve committed on them. The burden of this debt will keep the economy sputtering so that there will not be the growth necessary to pay out way back out of this mess. Plenty of currency but no money.
You also glossed over the authoritarian aspect of this path. You have governors and mayors across the Nation issuing ever more despotic edicts. Banning gatherings isn’t just a suggestion to rational knowledgeable adults who can take this information and react as they determine best for them. No, gatherings are being outlawed with fines and jail time to be the punishment for flouting the law. We don’t have many leaders around this country, we have would be rulers. And, these harsh consequences for ignoring edicts is because, as seen throughout history, rulers hate it when the people ignore them. We go willingly into a lock down, thinking it will be worthwhile to curb the deaths, but we will have to shoot our way back to Liberty, to paraphrase something I heard Steve G say once.
It is NOT the responsibility of the government to protect me. That is my obligation to myself and it is the obligation each one of us has to ourselves. Governments’ primary obligation is to PROTECT MY RIGHTS. It’s the only reason governments exist.
You, of all people, should know this. The depth of knowledge I’ve learned from you over the years tells me you know this innately. And yet, you seem willing to throw all that away because “horrible virus” and we’re all going to die!
Newsflash – we ARE all going to die. No one gets out of here alive.
As Ben Franklin was purported to have once said “Those that would exchange essential Liberty for a little temporary security, deserve neither.”
BTW, Google Albany, GA. #1 in the country for coronavirus per capita. That’s where I live
Many happy returns to you and your good lady Bill.
Also, thank you. Episode 19 was just what I needed. This whole Wu Flu business has been really getting me down. My tin foil hat’s been getting bigger by the day and my resentment of effective house arrest along with it. It seems like this is being used as an excuse for intervention and control more here than in the US (no surprise there) and when I learned that Boris Johnson was in intensive care my thoughts got dark indeed. The Remainiacs have tried to use the situation to push their agenda and Boris gone would help them massively.
So, this episode was a tonic. It gave much needed perspective and some very welcome, but measured, optimism. So, thank you very much indeed Bill. I do hope even folk who take a more fundamental line on this matter will not leave over this. Both those who leave and those who stay would be the poorer for their absence.
Bill, I completely agree with your “Radical, Unpopular, Coronavirus Crisis Theory”. As a new subscriber to your team, you have cemented my membership with your rational discussion in Episode 19. No sane elected official, right or left, wishes to see unnecessary loss of life from this disease. We are all having to adjust to this as we deal with it and learn from it. That said, I believe President Trump was the right person, at the right time for this challenge, due to his business background and get it done approach, freed from the confines of political correctness. He has the necessary “hide of an alligator” to make the critical decisions when needed. He needs our prayers.
Regarding the media, there’s a joke from (I think) the World War II era:
Visitor: “What side is the Press office on?”
Receptionist: “Ours, I hope.”
One of the things I’ve been seeing discussed is “net lives saved”. This includes not just “bending the curve” on coronavirus, but would include lives not lost to the flu, and to car accidents.
But “net lives saved” should be decreased by losses due to the damage to the economy. For example, one number I’ve heard is that each one percentage point increase in the unemployment rate costs 10,000 lives.
We may never know how many “net lives” are saved or expended over the course of this spring.
Gina Raimondo is suggesting tracking people, tracking human beings by several means.
I think that the cost is worth it if it is merely money and inconvenience. If sweat and blood can save people from this, I’m in. It is NOT worth it if freedom and liberty is written on the bottom line of this bill. Not worth it.
Sadly, I don’t think this will cause a revolution in either elementary, secondary, or higher education. Most of the college students hate remote learning. The same goes for elementary and secondary level students, and I think most parents are going to be quite happy to shovel their kids back into the school.
Most parents are not homeschooling anyway. If the kids go to a school that’s really on the ball, the teachers are still teaching them using a variety of remote tools. If their school is lackluster, they’ve sent home material for the parent to teach the kid (or for the kid to complete independently). The parent has planned nothing and doesn’t understand most of what’s in the packets. They’re just going through the motions, waiting eagerly for the schools to reopen.
I’ve been a professional educator for 20 years having taught every grade from PreK through 12, as well as college courses both in-person and fully online. I currently teach at a high school, and while my university classes didn’t run this year, I’m still plugged into the groups my colleagues formed to help them make the adjustment to virtual instruction. I’m pro-homeschooling, but I don’t see this generating any massive shift in that direction.
So my big issue with how all of this was handled was there wasn’t discussion for what is the best overall method to deal with this. You are crediting him with some great knowledge saying to shut things down but a 5 year old could tell you the best way to stop a virus is to shut everything down. What a great idea would be is if they produced an idea to be 90+% as effective as that while doing much less social and economic damage. That would have made Fauci truly exceptional but instead he just gave an easy solution and maybe it was the right thing to do but I didn’t hear any discussion on what are the options and how effective is each one which a great leader would have done.
Also to the modeling and numbers. They are only releasing worst case scenario models where if Fauci and the others were truly great at handling this, they wouldn’t just report worst case scenario models but others. What does the model say if patient 0 was actually back in early December like it most likely was. What does it say assuming 5-10 times more cases then are reported? What are the numbers when mortality rate is assumed to be in line with the flu since the 1.5-3% mortality rate is waayyyy too high since its not taking into account many mild and asymptomatic cases. Also what is the model for isolating at risk individuals and letting young healthy individuals work and maybe other similar solutions? What is the model for just practicing better hygiene and not packing lots of people close together but still working (maybe just shut down major sporting events, etc.)?
I am not saying that Fauci did this all for his own power or whatever and I agree with you Bill that he very well may have done his absolute best in dealing with this. BUT, in an exceptional handling of this crisis all that data above as well as next best solutions etc. would have been created and made available so us citizens as well as politicians could make informed decisions on what the best route is. I have not seen him or anyone else produce much of that information but only worst case scenario models and most stringent measures to stop it. If Fauci said my recommendation is to shut everything down but here are other methods and their relative effectiveness I would praise him as much as you Bill but I don’t remember hearing that happen.
Also to add there isn’t enough discussion by people other than trump about when to open everything back up. Based off that graph you showed it seems like it might be time soon. If not then why not? There hasn’t been a defined end point of this shutdown of when it is acceptable to go in public again and not providing that is also bad leadership from Fauci and others. I’m not saying we need a specific date but at what # of cases, rate of decline, or other factor is it ok to end this?
Happy birthday to both of you!
Well, Bill, I don’t know about your title, but I think you are 100% right. You said nothing that I disagree with. Your comments are clearly the result of deep thought.
I remember when Trump was running in 16, he kept saying that China was our enemy. Boy, was he right!
And I think our economy will come roaring back just as soon as we are allowed to get back to work and to our lives. You can’t beat the American spirit!
I’ve been wondering….is the ‘Plain’ of Infinite Despair…Plain, like the wide open plains….or Plain as is ordinary, or Plane, as in airplane or mathematical?