Some thoughts on the Ukraine

Like many others, I have to admit that the Russian invasion of the Ukraine took me by surprise. Not moving troops into the carefully prepared “separatist” areas of Luhansk and Donetsk. Nibbling off bits of neighbouring states is very much Putin’s MO and was highly likely, especially after the extraordinary display of weakness and confusion in Afghanistan. But a full-on invasion of an entire country, with columns of tanks, airstrikes, big arrows on maps? That I did not expect.

Generally speaking, I’ve been more sympathetic towards the Russian position than many people. If you look through political maps of Europe down through the centuries, you won’t see the word ‘Ukraine’ very much. In the late 16^th and 17^th centuries most of the area now covered by the Ukraine was part of the Commonwealth of Poland-Lithuania. From the 18th century onwards, it was part of the ever-expanding Russian Empire. For a very brief period after the revolution in 1917 there was an independent Ukraine, which sadly was swiftly re-absorbed by the Soviet Union.

That doesn’t mean there are no such thing as Ukrainians and the Ukraine, nations can exist without being nation-states, but the Ukraine has existed within a wider Russian state for three centuries. Coming from a complicated country made up of different nations united at different times myself, I can sympathise with Putin’s view on the Ukraine.

It has also been pointed out that the Ukraine, far from being the spotless paragon of democracy with its shining face turned to a progressive future we’re being sold by the MSM, is, in fact, in the same league as kleptocratic Russia when it comes to corruption. On BW.com I need not go into the dodgy connections between elements in the Ukraine and a certain crime family in the USA.

It is also true that there are people in politics there that can be called extreme nationalists of a sort found in Germany in the 30s and 40s. However, as always, context is king. During the 1920s/30s the people of the Ukraine suffered from a terrible, man-made, famine which killed millions of people. They also suffered, as did all in the Soviet Union, the Stalin Terror and general repression. The German led armies that swept east across the Soviet Union in 1941 did not seem like invaders to most Ukrainians, they were liberators. When people glibly describe some Ukrainian political groups as Nazi is one form or another, they forget that the Ukrainian experience of the Second World War, and the years before and after it, was not at all the same as it was for the USA, UK and western Europe.

I have noticed some people on the wilder shores of the English speaking Right online triumphantly claiming the whole invasion is a hoax, or that it is largely a hoax, etc. etc. etc. I saw one guy who claimed this is proved by that the fact that in an interview with former Ukrainian president, Petro Poroshenko, one of the soldiers lined up in the background fiddles with his weapon and the mag falls out! So what? There are muppets and klutzes everywhere. The guys lined up behind Poloshenko were most likely roped in at the last minute by a reporter who wanted a suitable backdrop.

All TV is fake. I’ve been around enough news reporting and documentary making to know that seeing the unvarnished truth on TV is very rare, (what you’re being told might well be true, but the TV folk will have almost certainly altered the visual reality to help “sell” the story). I don’t doubt that the Ukrainians are bending the truth to make the Russians look as bad as possible and maximising the sympathy they get from the world at large. They’d be mad if they weren’t. Truth is always the first casualty of war. I have seen one or two clips myself that I’m not sure are genuine, that said, the idea that the whole thing is made up is bizarre. Putin himself seems to be sure he’s invaded the Ukraine, even if he doesn’t recognise it as an invasion.

There are also people pointing out that there is a long list of deeply disreputable politicians who are supporting Ukraine. It is uncomfortable being on the same side of an issue as the likes of Biden and his crew, that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s the wrong position to take. Their sturdy reaction to the invasion has strengthened the EU hugely, and I cannot over emphasise how much I truly loathe the EU. But Poland, Hungary, and the rest cannot help but draw closer to Brussels when Moscow is sending tanks across borders in their backyard. As Churchill said, “If Hitler invaded hell, I would make at least a favourable reference to the devil in the House of Commons.”.

Similarly, I’ve seen many comments pointing out, quite correctly, that the situation in which Putin felt emboldened enough to launch the invasion was the result of actions, inactions, weakness and naivety from many in the west. Any complex international situation will be the product of many factors. It is equally true that the situation in 1939 was as much to do with Chamberlain and Lebrun and the other leaders of the free world and their weakness in dealing with Hitler as it was to do with Hitler himself. That does not alter the fact that it was Hitler who ordered his troops to invade Poland. Putin is not Hitler, but he is certainly covering some of his greatest hits. 

So, the Russian attitude to the Ukraine does have some historical justification and the Ukraine is very young nation-state. The Ukrainians are not angels and are, no doubt, bending the truth to serve their cause. It is also true that many folk I would usually be very much on the other side of almost any argument from are supporting Ukraine. The situation is also not entirely the creation of Putin. None of this alters the fact that Putin’s Russia has sent massive military forces over the border and invaded an actual, legally recognised, nation-state. Add to that the sheer, ballsy defiance with which the Ukrainians are facing this invasion (putting on a slightly contrived brave face to a degree no doubt, we here in Britain certainly did in 1940) but the fact that the Ukrainians want to be seen as defiant speaks volumes. For me at least, all this means there is only one viable position, supporting Ukraine.

At the point tanks go over the border I think all the deep analysis, thoughtful pondering, and “ah yes, butting” take a back seat to the immediacy of the situation. By taking the action he has, Putin has more or less forced us to take sides, or at least, take a position. It should be an informed position, but unfortunately by his actions Putin has made the situation horribly binary, or at most ternary.

Other than supporting Ukraine or Russia, the position of splendid isolation is no doubt tempting and more appealing than being drawn into a spat between silly Europeans with very boring flags. However, even if you take the “a plague on both their houses” line that it doesn’t matter what colour flag flies over Kiev, it would be naïve to assume that what happens in Ukraine will have no impact across the world. This situation, and the free world’s response to it, it being watched closely. What flag flies over Kiev will no doubt have a great impact on what flag flies over Taipei.