Which came first: the lower than expected number or the social distancing?
Categories
The CoronaSphere Lounge Episode 22: The Law of Effect and Cause
Which came first: the lower than expected number or the social distancing?
10 replies on “The CoronaSphere Lounge Episode 22: The Law of Effect and Cause”
If all the US manufacturing jobs that are in China were put in Mexico and Central America instead, most of our illegal immigration problems would be over. Two birds with one big stone.
I think the best thing to do is just test everyone. Develop an inexpensive, easy test. If you come back positive then self-quarantine. If a person isn’t a carrier then no need to stay home.
Hang in there, Bill. I guarantee we all feel exactly like you do.
Hopefully you can retire this soon and return to the Stratosphere Lounge. The virus will be with us – forever until a vaccine is found or it dies out, which does happen. What we don’t know yet is how many have already had it and recovered. They should have immunity for 1-2 years minimum or forever if the virus fails to mutate fast. So far it is having a hard time mutating and staying infectious. I actually suspect there is a very sizeable group of people already immune. With luck it is in the 20%-30% vicinity which would mean we are well on our way to herd immunity, the ultimate vaccine if none else appears. For 98.5% of us this is a minor cold, a nasty cold or nothing we even notice. We should be thankful for such a gentle pandemic. SARS, MERS and others were much more lethal and to a much wider spectrum of people.
You are correct though that the leftists, democrats and media (I know all redundant) have acted very badly throughout all of this. First excoriating Trump for the travel ban, then for ignoring the virus (it was actually February 17 that Fauci was still proclaiming COVID-19 a “minuscule” threat to the US. And now they will beat the drum for “mishandling” the fight against it. There is no winning with dishonest, hatred driven people who will stoop to any depth necessary to attack their quarry. The democRat party has become truly evil. How long it will take Americans to notice is to be seen, but this pandemic may open some eyes that were asleep.
I would like to see a balanced analysis of Sweden’s approach. They did what Bill suggested at the very beginning: they quarantined vulnerable populations and cancelled public events, but didn’t close primary schools or restaurants. But then they rationed care, preferring younger victims to elder. I have seen some people claiming “Sweden did everything right” and others claiming what they did was terrible and caused things to be worse. A recent article at National Review flat-out contradicted the President’s assertion that Sweden had “big problems” and had switched strategies.
Because of this difficulty identifying the difference between cause and effect, I am afraid that we will learn all the wrong lessons about what to do for the next pandemic. I wonder if an honest, agenda-free, data-driven analysis of Sweden’s approach, which balanced the equation (or the two timers) in a different place from anywhere else, much closer to the center of the two extremes (do nothing vs. shut the world down), would help us to identify the correct lesson to learn.
Bretibart has reported quite a bit about Sweden. I note this bit buried at the very end of an article: “Coronavirus has also spread to nursing homes in 18 of Sweden’s 21 counties as of Friday.” That suggests that they didn’t do a very good job of quarantining their vulnerable elderly population.
Combined with drug rationing, care rationing, and other problems endemic to socialized medicine, it’s really hard to guess now what is “working,” or not working. I suspect the correct conclusions will be unknowable for at least a year.
I think we had to do quarantine, as I don’t want to live in a country where doctors have to decide who to try to save and who to let die. But I fear we have shot ourselves in the foot. In flattening the curve, we have prolonged the sickness greatly. Not only that, we have prevented herd immunity, which is absolutely essential.
Most of all, I agree with Limbaugh, when he said this is not sustainable. Not only financial, but emotionally. People can’t continue to imprison themselves indefinitely. We have to get on with life!
By the way, Bill, you guys in CA may already have herd immunity.
In my opinion, the cause of the less than expected numbers are both a bit higher estimate than it should have been and the social distancing.
A bit higher? 2 1/2 million deaths in the US? That the number that was used when we started social distancing, which evolved into quarantine.
The estimates were off, mostly because of lack of data and incorrect assumptions in the models. The models always tend to be pessimistic, even with the best data inputs. The shutdown of businesses accomplished very little. The virus is almost exclusively spread by close person to person contact. That is not the type of contact that takes place in a business setting and not even much in restaurants. Bars might be an exception. Regardless the voluntary social distancing and hygiene actions provided 90% or more of the slowing of spread. We can maintain those habits for a long time without shutting everything down.